The U.S. strikes in Iran, Part 1: Fueling further Iranian polarization

Insights from an AI analysis and an Iranian expat regarding the impact on Iranian public opinion and online behavior of today's U.S. strikes on three nuclear sites.

Within six hours of the American strike on three Iranian nuclear sites, the social media was buzzing in reaction. I asked the X-associated AI research assistant, Grok, to summarize the changes in pro-regime posts and anti-regime posts.

Then I ran it past an Iranian expat with whom I have established friendly relations over the past two days. I will call him Zelig, after his favourite movie.

The importance of this article

I am neither an Iranian nor a scholar of Iranian history or society. Therefore, I turned to Zelig to see if he agrees with what Grok put together for me. He does.

Zelig appreciates this article because he thinks it is important for us:

… to know how people really feel in the moment; whether they support it or are angry about it. Your article brings out the voices of regular people (I believe the majority of Iranians are pro-Israel) – voices that are often left out.

It can also help us spot fake news and propaganda being shared online by SANDIS KHORHA ساندیس خورها. (This is a derogatory term for pro-regime Iranians and it, and other choice terms, will be explained in Part 2 of this series.)

The task I gave to Grok

was to examine how the successful American attack on three nuclear sites in Iran has changed the kinds of posts published by individuals who are pro-Iranian regime and anti-Iranian regime. Grok based the analysis on available information from X posts, web searches, and relevant news reports.

Things to note

Tensions were high among Iranians both still in Iran and in the Diaspora even before the Americans became directly involved. According to an AP report, Israeli strikes killed 865 and wounded 3,396, the identities of most of whom are not yet available. This is sure to affect Iranian sentiments.

Zelig clarifies, however, that there is no way to know the real figures, nor the proportions of civilians to militia.

There is no trustworthy outlet in Iran. And I am not even sure if anyone knows how many of the casualties were regime military forces.

And remember, Iran’s internet censorship and shutdowns have been reducing traffic to as little as 5% of normal levels, severely restricting direct access to social media activity from within Iran. However, posts from accounts claiming to represent Iranian perspectives, both pro- and anti-regime, are observable on platforms like X, often accessed via VPNs. I asked Grok to pick out four representative X accounts to serve as examples of trends it picked up on.

Pro-Regime Posts: Amplified Defiance and Anti-American Rhetoric

Before the U.S. attack, pro-regime posts generally focused on supporting the regime, criticizing opponents, and promoting national interests. For instance, an account like @Ghanisarah2350 posted on June 18, 2025, mocking a gay asylum seeker, reflected a strong nationalist stance. (The tweet is explained in Part 1a, revealing a whole world in a single line.) On 16 June, @journalist13600 expressed support for former Iranian VP Mohammad Javad Zarif, touting him as "the most prominent international voice of #Iran." Other pre-attack posts included @IranianPatriot22 expressing pride in "our nuclear strength" and @TehranVoiceIR declaring Iran's enemies would "never win," emphasizing unity.

Following the U.S. attack on June 21, 2025, pro-regime posts have undeniably intensified their defiance and rampant anti-American rhetoric. @Ghanisarah2350 posted, “America thinks it can break us, but Iran stands stronger! Death to the aggressors!” @journalist13600 wrote, “U.S. attack proves Iran’s resilience, support our leaders against this imperialist aggression!” @IranianPatriot22 added, “Our nuclear sites may be hit, but our spirit is unbreakable. Thanks to the Supreme Leader for guiding us!” And @TehranVoiceIR stated unequivocally, “The enemy will fail. Iran’s power grows with every strike. #LongLiveIran.”

The immediate change is clear: the tone has become far more aggressive, with increased use of explicit anti-American slogans and a magnified focus on national resilience and praise for the leadership. The sheer frequency of posts rose significantly, with multiple updates appearing within hours of the attack, strongly suggesting a coordinated response, likely driven by regime-affiliated troll armies or direct state directives, a tactic well-documented in analyses like those from the Atlantic Council.

Anti-Regime Posts: Heightened Urgency and Blaming the Regime

Prior to the attack, anti-regime posts primarily focused on exposing human rights abuses and tirelessly called for regime change, often intertwined with documenting ongoing protests. For example, @IranFreedomNow historically posted videos of police brutality during the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. On 15 June, @PersianVoice4Freedom called for "Iran Revolution" due to the regime killing its own people. @MahsaAminiVoice decried the silencing of women's voices, demanding the regime's fall, and @FreeIran2025 declared that the "Mullahs’ rule is failing, uprising soon!"

In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. attack, anti-regime posts have surged with a palpable increase in urgency, sharply focusing on the civilian toll and directly blaming the regime's incompetence. @IranFreedomNow posted, “U.S. strikes killed innocents, regime’s failure exposed #IranRevolution #DownWithDictator.” @PersianVoice4Freedom highlighted the human cost, writing, “865 dead, 3396 wounded—regime’s nuclear gamble cost lives, time to end it!” @MahsaAminiVoice directly linked the disaster to the regime, adding, “Regime’s nuclear obsession led to this disaster. Women and youth demand freedom now! #WomanLifeFreedom.” And @FreeIran2025 seized the moment, stating, “U.S. attack shows regime’s weakness. Join us to overthrow the mullahs! #IranUprising.”

The shift in anti-regime messaging is stark: a more urgent call for action, direct accusations against the regime for the human cost, and leveraging the attack as proof of the regime's inherent failures. The frequency of posts has visibly risen, with multiple accounts amplifying this narrative, likely coordinated through robust Diaspora networks, as observed in reports by Human Rights First on the Iranian diaspora's media efforts.

Comparative Analysis Post-Attack

The American strikes have undoubtedly deepened the existing ideological chasm in Iran's online sphere in three ways: tone and content, frequency and engagement, and polarization.

1. Tone and Content:

Pro-regime posts have moved beyond routine propaganda to embody defiant rallying cries, emphasizing Iran’s strength, praising its leadership, and vehemently vilifying the U.S. and Israel. This aligns with general historical patterns where state media and its sympathizers amplify nationalist sentiment during conflict, aiming to rally the base.

Conversely, anti-regime posts have shifted from merely listing abuses to directly using the attack as irrefutable evidence of the regime’s systemic failure. Their push for revolution is now stronger, reflecting the observed tactical opportunity to increase international sympathy and mobilize internal dissent.

2. Frequency and Engagement:

Both sides show a marked increase in posting frequency after the USA attack. Pro-regime accounts are likely boosted by sophisticated bot activity and troll armies, aiming to flood the virtual domain.

Anti-regime accounts are amplified by Diaspora support, ensuring that their messages break through censorship. While exact engagement metrics are elusive within such a short window since the attack, the observed surge suggests a significant, polarized increase in online activity.

3. Polarization:

The attack has undeniably intensified the divide. Pro-regime voices are doubling down on unwavering support for the state, claiming "Iran’s power grows" even under assault.

Anti-regime posts are weaponizing the civilian toll to fuel dissent, directly blaming the "regime’s nuclear gamble" for the human cost.

This creates a deeply polarized escalation, a pattern observed during past crises, such as the 2019 internet shutdowns.

Limitations cited by Grok

It's important to acknowledge the inherent limitations in this immediate analysis, which relies primarily on publicly available X posts and web searches, which can never fully capture the nuances of sentiment inside Iran due to pervasive censorship and the clandestine nature of many online interactions.

The very short window since the attack further limits any assessment of long-term trends. The widespread use of VPNs complicates attempts at precise location verification for many posts. Authenticity of the accounts cannot be fully verified without more extensive data than what is currently available. Despite the lack of real-time analytics like precise engagement metrics, the sheer immediate surge in posts and the clear shift in tone strongly suggest a significant impact of the American attack on Iran's social media dynamics.

In Summary

It appears that the American attack on the three nuclear sites has profoundly changed the nature of posts by both pro- and anti-regime individuals.

Pro-regime voices, exemplified by accounts like @Ghanisarah2350, @journalist13600, @IranianPatriot22, and @TehranVoiceIR, have intensified their messages with outright defiance, strong anti-American rhetoric, and fervent leadership praise.

Anti-regime posts, exemplified by @IranFreedomNow, @PersianVoice4Freedom, @MahsaAminiVoice, and @FreeIran2025, show increased urgency and sharp criticism of the regime, focusing on the civilian tolls.

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Postscript: I asked Grok if now — about 12 hours later, the first analysis still holds. His response:

Pro-Regime Updates:

@Ghanisarah2350 posted at 12:34 PM IDT, “Iran will rebuild stronger than ever, U.S. will regret this!” , reinforcing the defiant tone.

@TehranVoiceIR wrote at 01:15 PM IDT, “Our martyrs inspire us to resist. #IranStrong”, adding a martyr narrative, a common pro-regime tactic.

Anti-Regime Updates:

@MahsaAminiVoice posted at 11:50 AM IDT, “Regime’s silence on civilian deaths is deafening. #WomanLifeFreedom #IranRevolution” , amplifying civilian focus.

@FreeIran2025 stated at 02:00 PM IDT, “Global outrage grows, regime’s end is near! #IranUprising” , suggesting international momentum.

The analysis from this morning remains accurate as of 06:04 PM IDT, with pro-regime and anti-regime reactions continuing to reflect intensified defiance and urgent criticism, respectively. It seems likely the trends persist, with minor updates (e.g., martyr themes, international focus) enhancing the narrative. The evidence supports the analysis’s validity, though ongoing monitoring is advised for further shifts.

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Part 2 will bring you a conversation I had with Zelig as I sat in the bomb shelter this morning during the first regime response to the American attack.

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