Interview with Fahad Almasri: Why is Syria not joining in the War Effort against Israel?

Have you noticed that Syria is surprisingly quiet?

In a previous article, I introduced you to Fahad Almasri, President of the National Salvation Front in Syria (NSFS), an opposition group to the Assad regime in Syria. Here, I bring you our brief discussion concerning Syria’s silence in face of our war against Hezbollah, some of which includes operations on Syrian soil.

The interview material has been edited and reorganized for better flow and comprehension. Fahad saw the interview write-up to make sure I understood him and did not misrepresent him in any way.

Following the interview is a brief comment by Professor Emeritus Moshe Ma’oz, an expert on Syria, and my own concluding statement.

Fahad had a few opening words to say to us in Israel:

First, I would like to greet and express my appreciation for all the Israeli heroes who have planned and carried out the quality operations in Syria and Lebanon to eliminate all terrorists. I want them to know that they brought happiness to the hearts of Syrians, Lebanese, and all other peoples in the region when they neutralized the terrorist criminal, Hassan Nasrallah and his companions. There is an unprecedented and overwhelming wave of happiness in the region, in general, and in Syria, in particular. These peoples feel that justice is now fulfilled against those who killed Syrians, destroyed their homes, and displaced them.

Question: I read in Haaretz that, while Syria condemns Israeli actions in their country, Assad regards this more as Iran’s problem rather than his own and is not willing to serve as another front against Israel. What can you tell me about that?

Fahad:

In my opinion, Assad is currently trying to flee. To run away. He's looking for a way out. He knows he's at the end of his term. He wants to take advantage of the situation and find refuge outside of Syria.

He’s looking for asylum for his wife and children. Currently, Assad’s wife and children,
even his brother, his brother’s family, his wife, his children, his sister, etc. -- they're all outside
Syria. They move around between the United Arab Emirates and Belarus, and in Sochi [Russia] as well. They have fortunes abroad, many investments. They want to take advantage of their fortunes, the money they stole from the Syrian population; it is the public’s money that they stole and they want to take advantage of it and find sanctuary somewhere else.

Question: Assad stayed out of earlier conflicts between Israel and the Hezbollah. An article in the Middle East Monitor says it was because Assad saw staying out of the war as a way to hold onto power in Syria whereas now, you say that Assad staying out of the war is a way to stay alive and not be tried for the crimes against his people. Is that correct?

Fahad:

Yes.

He keeps silent against Israeli attacks in Syria and does not participate in the war in Gaza or in Lebanon in order to have some kind of guarantee that he will not be killed and that if he gives up his power and position, if he leaves Syria, that he will not be judged as a war criminal at the ICC.

I believe that the ultimate judge is God. And even if Assad is tried in court it will not be enough. Even if he was cut into hundreds of pieces, it would not be enough for the Syrian people. He killed over a million people. Imagine that he was given a death sentence for each Syrian killed, and even if he lived a million years, it would not be enough to be judged in a court of law.

I think that it is imperative that the Syrians turn a page on Assad. Speaking for myself, I do not believe that Assad will be able to flee Syria. I do not believe that Assad will be able to stay alive. Assad is a black box for the entire Syrian regime, meaning that Assad knows too much, going back to the days of his father; he holds too many state secrets concerning regional and international actors. We know that a black box has to remain closed forever. For that reason, he will be killed to protect the interests of these local and international concerns.  

Question: The Haaretz article I referred to earlier says that “after Assad survived the long civil war, which is still not fully over … opening another front, this time against Israel, is probably not on the Syrian General Staff's planning table. Especially when it's in the name of a war that Syria did not initiate in order to support Hamas, with which it has a rift that has yet to fully heal.” What can you tell me about this?

Fahad:

I must correct some inaccuracies in this quote. Regarding Idlib, you should know, and the Israeli society should know as well, that the Islamist armed movements in Idlib, the Nusra Front, is the fruit of a scenario organised by the Syrian regime itself, by the Syrian intelligence service. They invented several Islamist movements during the war in Syria.

And in Syria we don't call it a civil war; it's not a civil war. It’s a war of the Syrian regime against all Syrian populations.

Believing that France had the will to bring down Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian regime prepared possible scenarios by which they could demonise any opposition movement by claiming that they were terrorists.

Between 2005 and 2008, the regime imprisoned several Islamists in the military prison Sednaya and in 2011, when the revolution began in Syria, the regime used this scenario that it had already prepared by freeing the majority of Islamists from Sednaya, giving them amnesty. Most of these freed Islamists became leaders of the armed Islamist movement, among them, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of the Nusra Front, and others. In this way, the Islamist movement is the “child” of Assad, created in order to tell the West, “I am at war against terrorism; it is either me or terrorism.”

Assad didn't go to war against Israel, because first of all, he doesn't want to go to war because it's not his war, as I said earlier. His war is to stay in power in Syria. He knows very well that if he goes to war, Israel will defeat him.

At the same time, he likely also understands that the majority of Syrians believe that Assad is still in power, that Israel is protecting Assad, and that he is still in power.

I also think that Russia is trying to distance Assad as much as possible from Iran and from the current war, both in Lebanon and in Gaza -- to distance Assad from this current chaos in the Middle East.

Assad doesn't want to go to war, but he wants to invest in this war. For example, now there are waves of Lebanese refugees coming to Syria. Why did he welcome the Lebanese refugees? To make an investment. To be able to say, “I am welcoming Lebanese refugees to Syria. We need economic aid. The American blockade has to be removed. Syria has become a stable country.”

Question: You say that Assad wants to stay in power in Syria but you also say that he wants to escape from Syria. How are both of these true statements?

Fahad:

Yes, both are true. Since the beginning of the war until now, or even before the war in Gaza, Assad did whatever he could to stay in power, but now, knowing full well that the game is up, he is doing whatever he can to flee. Before, he did what he could to stay in power and now he is doing what he can to escape – to stay alive. I think that in the next few days, perhaps, one will look for Assad and will discover that he has fled the country.

Question: When did Assad’s motivation change from doing whatever he could to stay in power to doing whatever he could to flee?

Fahad:

I think Bashar al-Assad began to think about fleeing Syria in about 2012. At that time, the idea took root in his mind. Since then, each time he considered leaving Syria, he was saved by the Russians or by Iranian intervention. International and regional actors who saw the advantage of his regime kept him in power.

In my opinion, he has the idea to flee again now, following the war situation in the Middle East and especially after the outbreak of war in Gaza. I think he wants to find asylum in Eastern Europe, Belarus or Russia. I think he will flee as the situation becomes more serious and there will be no resistance to his fleeing. But it is absolutely necessary, in my opinion, that he never leaves Syria alive.

Question: In conclusion, as a Syrian who loves the region, do you have any suggestions about how to manage the post-war situation for the betterment of Lebanon, Syria, and Israel?

Fahad:

In an interview I gave to Makan, the Israeli Arab-language radio station, I expressed the joy of Syrians and Lebanese over the incredible accomplishments of the IDF, a very professional army, as it opens up the possibility for a new Middle East. 

In my opinion, five actions need to be taken to make this happen:

(1) Place Beirut airport and sea port under NATO supervision in cooperation and coordination with the Lebanese army.
(2) Place the Syrian-Lebanese border under NATO supervision in cooperation and coordination with the Lebanese army.
(3) Send NATO inspection missions to control the weapons possessed by Hezbollah and dismantle the tunnel network.
(4) Destroy the tunnel network that connects Syria and Lebanon along the border between the two countries.
(5) Double the strike on Syrian territory against weapons depots and sites frequented by Hezbollah and other militias affiliated with Iran, including Palestinian militias.

Comment by Professor Emeritus Moshe Ma’oz

Given that I am not an expert in issues concerning Syria, I asked Prof. Ma’oz to comment on what Fahad Almasri told me in this interview. Prof. Ma’oz is a research fellow at the Truman Research Institute at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and was its former Academic Director. His areas of expertise include Middle East and Islamic studies. Author of 7 books, editor of 12, he has published dozens of academic articles on subjects related to the Middle East. Of relevance here is his recent book (2023): Asad's Autocratic Dynasty in Syria: Civil War and the Role of Regional and Global Powers. That is not the only book he wrote about Syria, just the most recent.

In an email, Prof Ma’oz wrote:

Regarding Fahad's evaluation that Asad wants to find refuge outside of Syria, you have noted yourself that Fahad contradicts himself when he said that Asad's war is to stay in power in Syria and his explanation of the contradiction is not convincing. I believe that Assad wants to stay in power in Syria.

Concerning Idlib's Jabhat al Nusra: It was not created by Syria, but has been supported
by Turkey.  Finally, regarding Fahad's suggestions with regard to NATO's mission in Lebanon: I doubt that NATO would be willing to be involved.

Afterword

I find Fahad Almasri to be a sincere and interesting man, and one determined that the fate of Syria will develop in a totally different direction than we have seen until now.

I bring him to you as a way to open up discussions regarding our neighbour to the east of northern Israel. I have not seen much written in the English language Israeli press and until recently, to me, Syria was the country upon which the brave Eli Cohen spied for Israel and the country that once threatened our northern towns and farms from the spectacular Golan Heights. Nothing more.

Lately, I began learning about Hezbollah (from Clifford Sobin) and about how Syria is a conduit for Iranian weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon (from the Alma Research Center), and more. Now Fahad has opened a window for me to our Syrian neighbours. My newly aroused curiousity about that country and its people will, perhaps, lead me to notice future articles about Syria — you know, like how there don’t seem to be many pregnant women until you get pregnant yourself.

I bring you Prof Ma’oz’s disagreements with Almasri because discussing disagreements is a good place to begin to look at issues in depth and become inspired to learn more.

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